![]() ![]() You should no more dump a wild card for a chance at a natural in a multi-play than in single play. Another part comes from the deuces, of which 3 are left since you toss one out, 3/47. ![]() All you need to know is that a natural pays 32 times more than a wild, and your chances of hitting it are 47 times lower. However, you don't need all these probabilities. The odds of hitting at least 4 are 59.6%. So the odds of hitting least 3 are 67.8%. Note this ^100 vs ^98 business makes a big difference. but for simplicity's sake (I'm using a pocket calculator, not Mathcad) let's take ^98 for all, for 87.85%. That's a rough calculation for EV, but odds differ somewhat. Hell, the odds of hitting 3, which is slightly under the break even point, is only. Well, since the odds in a single hand are. Although, between you and me, I'd have a hard time tossing it unless the natural payed a lot more than 47 times as much. ![]()
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